Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-03-12 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

EDM: 53.0%

TBL: 47.0%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.31

TBL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

EDM

M. Koskinen

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Koskinen	32	31	1	96.9%	4.10	2	3.10
TBL	B. Elliott	49	45	4	91.8%	5.69	7	1.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	EDM
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	22	2	1.50
1	TBL	17	0	1.23
2	EDM	19	2	1.51
2	TBL	17	1	1.17
3	EDM	17	3	2.68
3	TBL	17	1	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0