Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-03-13 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 62.7%

TBL: 37.3%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.28

TBL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	31	29	2	93.5%	3.55	3	1.55
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	36	35	1	97.2%	3.11	4	2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • VAN at home vs TBL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	12	1	0.72
1	TBL	19	1	1.20
2	VAN	17	2	1.40
2	TBL	15	2	1.81
3	VAN	16	1	0.99
3	TBL	9	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0