Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-03-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 0 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

TOR: 50.2%

DAL: 49.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.19

DAL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

TOR

E. Kallgren

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	35	35	0	100.0%	3.64	5	3.64
DAL	Jake Oettinger	40	36	4	90.0%	5.52	4	1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TOR at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	1.43
1	DAL	20	3	1.68
2	TOR	25	1	2.46
2	DAL	16	2	1.38
3	TOR	17	2	1.63
3	DAL	13	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 0 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2