Arizona Coyotes at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-03-15 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Arizona Coyotes

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 69.0%

ARI: 31.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.25

ARI: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	19	13	6	68.4%	2.16	1	-3.84
ARI	K. Vejmelka	39	36	3	92.3%	2.90	1	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs ARI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-27	MTL 4 - 2 ARI	MTL	MTL
2023-11-02	ARI 3 - 2 MTL	ARI	ARI
2022-12-19	ARI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2022-10-20	MTL 6 - 2 ARI	MTL	MTL
2022-03-15	MTL 3 - 6 ARI	ARI	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.67
1	ARI	8	0	0.60
2	MTL	18	1	1.58
2	ARI	8	0	0.56
3	MTL	16	0	0.65
3	ARI	6	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1