New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-03-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 New York Islanders (SO)

Win Probability

WSH: 51.0%

NYI: 49.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.91

NYI: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

WSH

V. Vanecek

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	38	34	4	89.5%	3.21	1	-0.79
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	37	32	5	86.5%	4.40	1	-0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs NYI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	0	0.68
1	NYI	15	0	0.47
2	WSH	15	0	0.96
2	NYI	14	0	0.77
3	WSH	11	0	0.59
3	NYI	13	0	0.57
4	WSH	8	0	0.66
4	NYI	3	0	0.17
5	WSH	8	1	1.51
5	NYI	8	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1