Columbus Blue Jackets at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-03-16 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 56.1%

CBJ: 43.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.27

CBJ: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 53%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	39	35	4	89.7%	4.31	2	0.31
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	31	30	1	96.8%	2.90	0	1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs CBJ: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	CBJ 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-29	OTT 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	OTT
2025-12-11	CBJ 3 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-08	CBJ 5 - 2 OTT	CBJ	OTT
2025-04-06	OTT 4 - 0 CBJ	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.55
1	CBJ	21	1	1.82
2	OTT	18	0	1.47
2	CBJ	18	0	0.87
3	OTT	12	0	0.88
3	CBJ	13	1	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9