Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-03-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

TOR: 51.9%

CAR: 48.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.74

CAR: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

TOR

E. Kallgren

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	36	34	2	94.4%	2.71	1	0.71
CAR	Frederik Andersen	21	18	3	85.7%	2.10	1	-0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.59
1	CAR	18	0	0.60
2	TOR	10	0	0.51
2	CAR	15	1	0.96
3	TOR	12	1	1.00
3	CAR	18	0	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0