Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-03-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Dallas Stars (OT)

Win Probability

MTL: 43.5%

DAL: 56.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.96

DAL: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

MTL

J. Allen

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	35	31	4	88.6%	3.35	0	-0.65
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	28	3	90.3%	3.05	0	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs DAL: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MTL	11	0.99
1	DAL	16	1.18
2	MTL	11	0.68
2	DAL	17	1.18
3	MTL	11	0.85
3	DAL	11	0.79
4	MTL	5	0.52
4	DAL	5	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5