Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-03-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 43.5%

FLA: 56.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.02

FLA: 3.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

VGK

L. Thompson

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	36	33	3	91.7%	3.16	1	0.16
FLA	Spencer Knight	33	28	5	84.8%	5.27	4	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • VGK at home vs FLA: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	FLA
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	0	1.31
1	FLA	19	1	1.38
2	VGK	13	0	1.12
2	FLA	15	0	1.09
3	VGK	18	4	2.84
3	FLA	11	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.7