Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-03-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

OTT: 65.5%

PHI: 34.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.43

PHI: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	29	28	1	96.6%	2.74	1	1.74
PHI	M. Jones	36	33	3	91.7%	2.82	1	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs PHI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	0.86
1	PHI	14	0	1.06
2	OTT	17	0	0.86
2	PHI	12	0	0.39
3	OTT	15	1	1.10
3	PHI	14	1	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8