Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2022-03-18 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Washington Capitals (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 60.2%

WSH: 39.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.02

WSH: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

CAR

A. Raanta

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	A. Raanta	42	38	4	90.5%	4.13	1	0.13
WSH	I. Samsonov	23	20	3	87.0%	2.42	0	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • CAR at home vs WSH: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	18	0	0.93
1	WSH	18	0	0.95
2	CAR	7	0	0.71
2	WSH	11	0	0.67
3	CAR	11	0	0.53
3	WSH	20	0	1.12
4	CAR	1	0	0.02
4	WSH	4	0	0.32
5	CAR	3	0	0.23
5	WSH	3	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9