Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 0 - 1 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 71.9%

BUF: 28.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.86

BUF: 1.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 46%

CGY

J. Markstrom

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	34	33	1	97.1%	2.45	0	1.45
BUF	D. Tokarski	24	24	0	100.0%	2.45	0	2.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CGY	10	0.56
1	BUF	7	0.42
2	CGY	11	0.52
2	BUF	11	1.08
3	CGY	20	1.23
3	BUF	16	0.64
4	CGY	1	0.14
4	BUF	7	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 0 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.9 - 1.8