Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2022-03-18 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 50.8%

COL: 49.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.96

COL: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 53%

SJS

Z. Sawchenko

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Z. Sawchenko	29	24	5	82.8%	4.45	4	-0.55
COL	P. Francouz	28	25	3	89.3%	3.33	2	0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • SJS at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	8	0	0.58
1	COL	18	0	1.19
2	SJS	15	1	1.63
2	COL	12	2	1.05
3	SJS	14	1	1.12
3	COL	13	2	2.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5