New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-03-19 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 61.8%

NYR: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.70

NYR: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	25	2	92.6%	1.91	1	-0.09
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	29	28	1	96.6%	1.83	0	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • TBL at home vs NYR: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	0	1.08
1	NYR	10	1	0.49
2	TBL	7	0	0.24
2	NYR	18	0	1.15
3	TBL	9	0	0.52
3	NYR	6	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1