Dallas Stars at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-03-19 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 46.7%

DAL: 53.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.24

DAL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	39	37	2	94.9%	3.16	1	1.16
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	21	4	84.0%	1.80	1	-2.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL
2024-02-26	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	8	0	0.46
1	DAL	18	0	0.61
2	NYI	9	0	0.49
2	DAL	12	1	1.01
3	NYI	11	1	0.84
3	DAL	19	0	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3