Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2022-03-19 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

NSH: 42.9%

TOR: 57.1%

Expected Goals

NSH: 2.39

TOR: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 40%

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	41	38	3	92.7%	3.37	0	0.37
TOR	E. Kallgren	34	28	6	82.4%	3.91	3	-2.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • NSH at home vs TOR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	NSH 5 - 3 TOR	NSH	NSH
2025-10-14	TOR 7 - 4 NSH	TOR	TOR
2025-03-22	NSH 5 - 2 TOR	NSH	NSH
2024-12-04	TOR 3 - 2 NSH	TOR	TOR
2023-12-09	TOR 4 - 0 NSH	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	17	0	0.86
1	TOR	12	0	0.43
2	NSH	12	0	0.54
2	TOR	17	0	1.45
3	NSH	13	3	2.51
3	TOR	23	0	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.1

Score Breakdown

Nashville Predators 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.4 - 2.7