Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-03-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 63.1%

DAL: 36.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.36

DAL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

V. Vanecek

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	23	20	3	87.0%	2.90	0	-0.10
DAL	Jake Oettinger	38	36	2	94.7%	3.14	2	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	1	1.12
1	DAL	19	0	1.56
2	WSH	18	0	0.74
2	DAL	15	0	0.96
3	WSH	18	1	1.28
3	DAL	3	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8