Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-03-20 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 51.2%

BUF: 48.8%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.04

BUF: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 46%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	29	26	3	89.7%	2.84	0	-0.16
BUF	C. Anderson	32	30	2	93.8%	2.80	0	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • VAN at home vs BUF: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	BUF 5 - 3 VAN	BUF	BUF
2025-12-11	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-21	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	VAN
2024-11-29	BUF 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-03-19	VAN 3 - 2 BUF	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VAN	15	0.87
1	BUF	16	0.98
2	VAN	9	0.71
2	BUF	17	1.60
3	VAN	15	1.21
3	BUF	5	0.14
4	VAN	0	0.00
4	BUF	1	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8