Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-03-22 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

DET: 52.5%

PHI: 47.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.37

PHI: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	33	30	3	90.9%	2.67	1	-0.33
PHI	C. Hart	31	25	6	80.6%	3.29	5	-2.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs PHI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	9	1	0.51
1	PHI	9	0	0.43
2	DET	12	0	0.89
2	PHI	10	1	1.12
3	DET	17	4	1.90
3	PHI	17	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9