Boston Bruins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-02-17 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 47.9%

BOS: 52.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.20

BOS: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	26	1	96.3%	2.61	0	1.61
BOS	L. Ullmark	29	25	4	86.2%	2.61	1	-1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYI at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	8	0	0.26
1	BOS	16	0	1.13
2	NYI	14	0	0.93
2	BOS	9	0	0.83
3	NYI	12	1	1.43
3	BOS	12	0	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1