St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-03-22 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 56.7%

STL: 43.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.16

STL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

V. Vanecek

STL

V. Husso

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	38	33	5	86.8%	3.92	3	-1.08
STL	V. Husso	21	19	2	90.5%	2.05	0	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	0	1.01
1	STL	17	1	1.30
2	WSH	7	0	0.36
2	STL	15	0	0.87
3	WSH	8	0	0.68
3	STL	18	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9