Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2022-03-22 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

CAR: 56.2%

TBL: 43.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.24

TBL: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	29	27	2	93.1%	2.61	2	0.61
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	41	38	3	92.7%	4.16	1	1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • CAR at home vs TBL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	12	0	0.82
1	TBL	14	0	0.74
2	CAR	29	1	2.21
2	TBL	15	0	0.79
3	CAR	18	0	1.13
3	TBL	13	2	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8