Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-03-22 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

DAL: 60.9%

EDM: 39.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.17

EDM: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

EDM

M. Koskinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	22	3	88.0%	3.43	3	0.43
EDM	M. Koskinen	28	23	5	82.1%	3.91	3	-1.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DAL at home vs EDM: 8-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.64
1	EDM	15	1	1.27
2	DAL	16	1	1.66
2	EDM	17	1	0.99
3	DAL	13	2	1.61
3	EDM	12	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8