New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-03-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

TOR: 70.1%

NJD: 29.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.48

NJD: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

P. Mrazek

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	P. Mrazek	22	20	2	90.9%	1.82	1	-0.18
NJD	Nico Daws	31	28	3	90.3%	3.25	0	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TOR at home vs NJD: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	0	1.11
1	NJD	6	0	0.17
2	TOR	14	0	1.01
2	NJD	14	0	0.84
3	TOR	12	0	1.13
3	NJD	13	1	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9