Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-03-24 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

BOS: 56.6%

TBL: 43.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.08

TBL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	22	2	91.7%	2.28	0	0.28
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	36	3	92.3%	2.91	1	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	16	0	0.85
1	TBL	10	0	0.47
2	BOS	20	0	0.78
2	TBL	9	0	0.83
3	BOS	14	1	1.28
3	TBL	14	0	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0