Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-25 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

CGY: 72.1%

ARI: 27.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.27

ARI: 2.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

J. Markstrom

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	18	16	2	88.9%	1.62	0	-0.38
ARI	K. Vejmelka	33	29	4	87.9%	3.77	1	-0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • CGY at home vs ARI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-14	CGY 6 - 5 ARI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-16	CGY 3 - 2 ARI	CGY	ARI
2024-01-11	ARI 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	CGY
2023-03-14	ARI 4 - 3 CGY	ARI	CGY
2023-02-22	ARI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	10	0	0.45
1	ARI	14	0	0.78
2	CGY	20	0	1.60
2	ARI	8	0	0.49
3	CGY	16	1	1.71
3	ARI	5	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 4.3 - 2.3