Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-26 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 9 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

CGY: 52.4%

EDM: 47.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.36

EDM: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 57%

CGY

J. Markstrom

EDM

M. Koskinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	31	26	5	83.9%	3.85	2	-1.15
EDM	M. Koskinen	38	29	9	76.3%	4.84	0	-4.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	1.21
1	EDM	23	1	2.43
2	CGY	19	0	1.34
2	EDM	14	1	0.95
3	CGY	25	0	2.29
3	EDM	7	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 14.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 9 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9