Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-03-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TOR: 54.6%

FLA: 45.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.12

FLA: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

TOR

P. Mrazek

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	P. Mrazek	36	34	2	94.4%	2.35	1	0.35
FLA	Spencer Knight	25	20	5	80.0%	2.63	1	-2.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • TOR at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	10	0	0.50
1	FLA	13	1	0.85
2	TOR	16	0	0.86
2	FLA	10	0	0.59
3	TOR	9	1	1.28
3	FLA	21	0	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1