Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2022-03-28 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 63.4%

BUF: 36.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.43

BUF: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

CHI

K. Lankinen

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	K. Lankinen	37	31	6	83.8%	3.04	0	-2.96
BUF	D. Tokarski	21	16	5	76.2%	1.60	0	-3.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • CHI at home vs BUF: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	CHI 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-21	BUF 9 - 3 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-27	BUF 6 - 2 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-10-19	CHI 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-18	BUF 3 - 0 CHI	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CHI	10	0.59
1	BUF	12	0.62
2	CHI	5	0.54
2	BUF	20	1.77
3	CHI	10	0.47
3	BUF	15	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0