Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-03-29 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BOS: 49.9%

TOR: 50.1%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.13

TOR: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	26	6	81.2%	2.40	1	-3.60
TOR	P. Mrazek	30	26	4	86.7%	2.82	1	-1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • BOS at home vs TOR: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	0	0.54
1	TOR	17	1	1.01
2	BOS	12	0	0.71
2	TOR	19	0	1.00
3	BOS	17	1	1.57
3	TOR	11	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0