New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-03-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 60.3%

NYR: 39.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.29

NYR: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	26	23	3	88.5%	4.13	4	1.13
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	24	22	2	91.7%	2.46	1	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • PIT at home vs NYR: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.77
1	NYR	12	0	0.53
2	PIT	9	1	0.66
2	NYR	12	0	0.72
3	PIT	18	0	1.03
3	NYR	15	4	2.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9