New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-03-29 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Win Probability

CBJ: 47.6%

NYI: 52.4%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.02

NYI: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	29	25	4	86.2%	2.66	0	-1.34
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	45	42	3	93.3%	3.71	1	0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • CBJ at home vs NYI: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYI 1 - 0 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2026-02-28	CBJ 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	CBJ
2025-12-28	CBJ 4 - 2 NYI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-02	NYI 3 - 2 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2025-04-17	CBJ 6 - 1 NYI	CBJ	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	21	0	1.12
1	NYI	12	0	0.99
2	CBJ	16	0	0.81
2	NYI	22	0	1.24
3	CBJ	19	1	1.77
3	NYI	6	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2