Pittsburgh Penguins at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2022-03-31 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 58.0%

PIT: 42.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.10

PIT: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

MIN

C. Talbot

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	C. Talbot	39	35	4	89.7%	2.68	1	-1.32
PIT	C. DeSmith	31	28	3	90.3%	3.78	1	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs PIT: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-21	PIT 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	PIT
2025-10-30	MIN 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	MIN
2025-03-09	MIN 1 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-10-29	PIT 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-09	MIN 3 - 2 PIT	MIN	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	21	0	1.55
1	PIT	12	0	0.46
2	MIN	17	1	1.31
2	PIT	21	0	1.03
3	MIN	13	0	0.67
3	PIT	10	0	0.32
4	MIN	3	0	0.26
4	PIT	7	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0