San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-03-31 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

COL: 64.5%

SJS: 35.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.56

SJS: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

COL

P. Francouz

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	P. Francouz	27	25	2	92.6%	1.88	0	-0.12
SJS	K. Kahkonen	46	42	4	91.3%	4.39	2	0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • COL at home vs SJS: 8-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	1	1.34
1	SJS	8	0	0.38
2	COL	18	0	1.21
2	SJS	19	0	1.28
3	COL	24	1	1.83
3	SJS	6	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0