Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-04-01 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

DET: 47.2%

OTT: 52.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.14

OTT: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	32	27	5	84.4%	2.40	2	-2.60
OTT	Mads Sogaard	29	27	2	93.1%	3.06	1	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DET at home vs OTT: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.50
1	OTT	17	0	0.63
2	DET	13	1	1.76
2	OTT	14	0	0.55
3	DET	11	0	0.81
3	OTT	12	2	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2