Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-01 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

TBL: 68.4%

CHI: 31.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.65

CHI: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CHI

K. Lankinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	21	2	91.3%	1.64	0	-0.36
CHI	K. Lankinen	43	38	5	88.4%	6.99	6	1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs CHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	24	1	2.20
1	CHI	10	0	0.74
2	TBL	17	1	1.49
2	CHI	15	0	0.59
3	TBL	15	4	3.30
3	CHI	6	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9