New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-04-01 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 0 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 63.7%

NYI: 36.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.31

NYI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	18	15	3	83.3%	2.27	1	-0.73
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	27	27	0	100.0%	2.00	1	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYR at home vs NYI: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.53
1	NYI	10	0	0.65
2	NYR	15	1	0.75
2	NYI	8	0	0.70
3	NYR	12	0	0.72
3	NYI	8	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 0 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8