Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-02 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 56.8%

MTL: 43.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.62

MTL: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

B. Elliott

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	34	29	5	85.3%	3.81	1	-1.19
MTL	J. Allen	43	39	4	90.7%	4.80	2	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs MTL: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	1.11
1	MTL	20	0	1.25
2	TBL	25	2	2.39
2	MTL	12	0	1.08
3	TBL	12	0	0.86
3	MTL	8	0	0.41
4	TBL	4	0	0.24
4	MTL	1	0	0.05
5	TBL	3	0	0.19
5	MTL	3	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8