Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-04-02 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PHI: 48.3%

TOR: 51.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.07

TOR: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

PHI

C. Hart

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	28	22	6	78.6%	2.69	1	-3.31
TOR	J. Campbell	32	29	3	90.6%	2.63	2	-0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	0	0.93
1	TOR	9	0	0.59
2	PHI	15	2	1.32
2	TOR	15	1	1.42
3	PHI	10	0	0.39
3	TOR	14	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.6