St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-04-02 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 6 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 71.6%

STL: 28.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.61

STL: 2.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

STL

V. Husso

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	19	6	76.0%	4.02	4	-1.98
STL	V. Husso	43	39	4	90.7%	4.46	4	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs STL: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	CGY 2 - 1 STL	CGY	STL
2025-11-11	STL 3 - 2 CGY	STL	STL
2025-10-11	CGY 2 - 4 STL	STL	STL
2025-01-16	STL 4 - 1 CGY	STL	CGY
2025-01-14	STL 2 - 1 CGY	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	2	1.82
1	STL	7	0	0.77
2	CGY	20	0	1.14
2	STL	7	0	0.52
3	CGY	18	2	1.50
3	STL	20	4	2.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 6 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.6 - 2.4