Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-04-03 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

OTT: 53.4%

DET: 46.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.65

DET: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	32	30	2	93.8%	2.45	0	0.45
DET	T. Greiss	36	31	5	86.1%	3.86	2	-1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • OTT at home vs DET: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	0.93
1	DET	9	0	0.63
2	OTT	16	0	1.18
2	DET	10	0	0.76
3	OTT	12	2	1.75
3	DET	22	0	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1