Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-04-03 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 70.9%

PHI: 29.1%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.34

PHI: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	29	25	4	86.2%	3.69	2	-0.31
PHI	M. Jones	48	45	3	93.8%	4.18	1	1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYR at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	19	0	0.98
1	PHI	13	0	0.87
2	NYR	28	1	1.87
2	PHI	8	0	0.56
3	NYR	13	0	0.76
3	PHI	7	0	0.61
4	NYR	6	0	0.32
4	PHI	6	1	0.80
5	NYR	3	0	0.24
5	PHI	3	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6