Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-04-05 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 7 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

FLA: 65.0%

TOR: 35.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.58

TOR: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	35	29	6	82.9%	4.46	1	-1.54
TOR	E. Kallgren	49	42	7	85.7%	5.58	5	-1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • FLA at home vs TOR: 10-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	20	3	2.33
1	TOR	18	0	1.56
2	FLA	17	0	1.21
2	TOR	20	0	1.25
3	FLA	23	2	1.63
3	TOR	18	1	1.52
4	FLA	4	0	0.40
4	TOR	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 7 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0