Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-04-05 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 65.1%

CBJ: 34.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.90

CBJ: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 7.1

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 55%

PHI

C. Hart

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	30	26	4	86.7%	2.90	1	-1.10
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	49	47	2	95.9%	4.11	4	2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs CBJ: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PHI 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2026-03-14	PHI 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2026-01-28	CBJ 5 - 3 PHI	CBJ	PHI
2025-04-15	PHI 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2025-01-14	CBJ 3 - 2 PHI	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	22	3	1.76
1	CBJ	9	0	0.57
2	PHI	21	0	1.12
2	CBJ	15	0	0.46
3	PHI	15	1	1.23
3	CBJ	19	1	1.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 2.9 - 2.7