Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-04-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 54.9%

COL: 45.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.05

COL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	26	6	81.2%	3.09	1	-2.91
COL	D. Kuemper	46	42	4	91.3%	3.80	1	-0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	23	0	1.28
1	COL	14	0	0.84
2	PIT	14	1	1.27
2	COL	12	0	0.58
3	PIT	19	0	1.25
3	COL	17	1	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0