Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-04-06 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 49.0%

TBL: 51.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.87

TBL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

WSH

I. Samsonov

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	28	25	3	89.3%	2.41	0	-0.59
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	24	4	85.7%	3.77	2	-0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs TBL: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	1	1.67
1	TBL	14	0	0.93
2	WSH	11	0	0.80
2	TBL	12	0	0.84
3	WSH	13	1	1.30
3	TBL	10	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1