Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-04-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 45.3%

PIT: 54.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.09

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	30	30	0	100.0%	3.39	2	3.39
PIT	Tristan Jarry	24	21	3	87.5%	2.39	2	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NYR at home vs PIT: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.66
1	PIT	12	1	1.11
2	NYR	8	0	0.37
2	PIT	13	1	0.85
3	NYR	9	2	1.36
3	PIT	18	0	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0