Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-04-07 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 55.2%

TOR: 44.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.11

TOR: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 58%

DAL

S. Wedgewood

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	S. Wedgewood	41	37	4	90.2%	2.95	2	-1.05
TOR	J. Campbell	18	15	3	83.3%	1.66	0	-1.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • DAL at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.59
1	TOR	16	0	0.84
2	DAL	7	0	0.47
2	TOR	20	1	1.29
3	DAL	8	0	0.52
3	TOR	7	0	0.36
4	DAL	2	0	0.08
4	TOR	3	1	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0