Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2022-04-07 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 52.5%

CGY: 47.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.91

CGY: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

SJS

J. Reimer

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	41	37	4	90.2%	5.02	4	1.02
CGY	Dan Vladar	33	31	2	93.9%	2.75	1	0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • SJS at home vs CGY: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	0	0.66
1	CGY	23	0	1.34
2	SJS	18	0	1.01
2	CGY	23	1	1.45
3	SJS	13	1	1.08
3	CGY	15	3	2.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4