Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-08 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Boston Bruins (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 43.5%

BOS: 56.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.58

BOS: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	35	2	94.6%	2.26	0	0.26
BOS	L. Ullmark	29	28	1	96.6%	2.61	0	1.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs BOS: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TBL	15	0.82
1	BOS	12	0.76
2	TBL	7	0.44
2	BOS	17	1.08
3	TBL	17	1.23
3	BOS	11	0.38
4	TBL	1	0.11
4	BOS	1	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.6 - 3.3